19 November 2025 : Gallium + US$76.00/kg to US$1,611.90/kg
Despite the volatile equity, commodity, and currency markets during November, the gallium price has remained well bid, rising by an impressive U$76.00 per kilogram over the past two weeks. This situation brings to mind the old trading adage: “a price that clings to its highs reflects unfulfilled demand below.” This raises the intriguing question – where could that demand be coming from?
The gallium market is evolving rapidly, with new applications being developed every day. Our G50 Corp slide deck attempts to illustrate the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for several key demand applications. According to the USGS, 75% of the current gallium market is consumed by US defense applications. We assume this to be a constant for the foreseeable future. However, it seems that incremental demand is emerging from Integrated Circuits (AI/Data Center) and Telecommunications (6G rollout). The inherent efficiencies offered by GaN applications over traditional silicon solutions are substantial.
To provide a concrete example, independent research group Aspencore has estimated that the assumed savings per data centre could be in the region of U$2bn (increased revenue, reduced costs, and deferred capex). Given that there are approximately 2,000 data centres around the world, the TAM is projected to be a staggering U$2 trillion. As an additional point of interest, Grok estimates that there could be as many as 12,000 data centres worldwide in 2025.
It is important to note that the bulk of this new demand is unlikely to be reflected in the commodity price until well into 2026. We view the 2025 price move of +72% YTD as merely the opening salvo in a battle that has yet to fully play out among buyers and sellers.
As a famous quote goes, “Toto, I don’t think we are in Kansas anymore.”
