18 March 2026 : Gallium + US$209.00/kg to US$2,269.40/kg
“Be curious, not judgemental.”
This phrase feels especially relevant as we watch the gallium market surprise us yet again. It’s been exactly two months since our last discussion about gallium’s price movement, and the market has just thrown us another curveball—a remarkable jump of more than 10%, pushing the price up to U$2,269.40. For context, that’s about U$62.00 per ounce and a striking 32% increase year-to-date. Gallium is truly emerging as the silent achiever in the commodities landscape this year, and if the current trajectory holds, it could very well double in 2026 alone. Since China put export controls in place in August 2023, gallium prices have surged almost fourfold. While momentum took some time to gather, it’s clear now that the horse has well and truly bolted.
What’s especially noteworthy is that approximately 75% of current gallium demand is driven by defense applications, particularly in radar systems—both offensive and defensive. Modern warfare’s backbone depends on sophisticated platforms like THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), which leverages advanced AN/TPY-2 radars featuring Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology. GaN enables these radars to function at much higher voltages and power levels, delivering exceptional sensitivity for long-range, X-band tracking. Recent conflicts have thrown a spotlight on just how strategically vulnerable this supply chain can be—replacing GaN-based sensors isn’t easy when material constraints are so pronounced. (Think Iron Dome and similar systems.)
Looking back to November 2025, UBS took a crack at analyzing gallium market fundamentals, upgrading their demand and supply forecasts, but still projecting that demand is likely to outpace supply all the way to 2050.
Source: UBS Global Research 21 November 2025 – Net Zero Transition Materials, Resource realignment – a new order for critical commodities
There are plenty of potential catalysts on the horizon for gallium prices, but perhaps the most significant is due imminently: as soon as March 19th this week, the United States, European Union, and Japan are expected to announce a major update. They’re finalizing a plan to establish a reference price and price floor for critical minerals—gallium included—in a coordinated move to counter China’s continued dominance in the supply chain. The plan aims to create a “preferential zone” where minimum reference prices are upheld through adjustable tariffs, shielding these markets from the impact of cheaper Chinese exports.
This pricing strategy isn’t limited to gallium; it’s set to cover other critical materials like germanium, antimony, and tungsten, which are all essential for defense and high-tech sectors. The US Department of Defense’s DARPA is playing a key role, lending its technical expertise and deploying an AI program (OPEN) designed to establish fair market values based on true production costs—deliberately excluding any distortions caused by Chinese market interventions.
With all this in mind, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the update expected this week. I look forward to discussing what these developments might mean for our strategies and opportunities going forward.
